Is This An Abnormal Summer?

A lot of people have been asking me if this summer has been "abnormal". We first must ask ourselves, "is there a such thing as 'normal' in weather"? Many times in our business, the words "normal" and "average" are used as synonyms. I'm guilty of using of using the word "normal" from time-to-time, but usually use the word "average". An average is what-it-is because there are higher numbers and lower numbers. Let's look at the rainfall in August over the past 5 years:

2008: 4.57" VERY WET
2009: 4.17" VERY WET
2010: 0.24" VERY DRY
2011: 2.49" WET
2012: 3.82" WET

The 30 year average for August is 2.54". So far, we have had 3.23" this August and we are only halfway through the month. So, is it abnormal? Let's just say... we are above average! If you just take the first 12 days of August, we are 2.24" above average so far.

We have had measurable rainfall for the past 10 days, which has made us feel like the entire Summer has been wet, but actually, July's rainfall was below average... barely.

It's all about the averages. Some months are wetter than average and some months are drier than average. This happens to be one of the above average years for rainfall in August.

To see this graphically, here is the climate graph for 2013. First, here is a legend:

For those wanting dry weather, the rain chances are much lower today and almost 0% Wed-Fri. In addition, low humidity and sunshine will take over Region 8!

Have a great day,
Ryan

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Changes Coming To The Region 8 Storm TEAM

As some of you may have heard, we have some changes coming to the Region 8 Storm TEAM. Justin Logan is returning to the team. Justin has been with Raycom Media for several years. He started at KAIT in 2008, but has been at our Columbus, GA station for the past couple of years. On social media, Justin posted this: 

"

"God has blessed me with this great opportunity and I am excited! KAIT is an awesome station with great people that I look forward to working with again" -Justin

It's great to have Justin back at KAIT, but when you add someone, it typically means that you are losing someone. Sarah Tipton will be leaving KAIT in the next 2 weeks. She has a great opportunity that will make for a better time with her family. I'm always proud to see people making very intentional decisions for their family. Here's what she posted on her Facebook page this morning:

"My last 13 days at KAIT have begun. Friday, August 2nd, I wrap up my time here. Justin Logan is returning to the Region 8 StormTEAM and will take over GMR8. He will do well, and I trust him to take over the place I have held the last five years. This moment is bittersweet and fraught with stress and emotion. I’ve spent 7 years in broadcast meteorology, won an award or two, and loved almost every moment of this career. The station and I are parting ways so I can focus on family and a better lifestyle. I am going to work at Sissy’s Log Cabin and am thankful the crew at the Jonesboro store has been so welcoming. This time brings to mind one of the two inscriptions on the Rhodes College Halliburton Tower bell: “Not fare well, but fare forward, voyagers.”- Sarah

I'm excited for both of them as they transition to new parts of their life. I've known both of them since they started in this business and I'm very proud of them. 

So, starting next month, the Region 8 Storm TEAM will be Bryan, Justin, and I. I can't say enough great things about these two guys. They are coworkers, but I also consider them great friends. I've been blessed to work with some great people at KAIT and that is not changing. It makes me happy.

Have a great day,

Ryan

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Changes Heading Into July?

It's hot and we will stay hot over the next couple of days, but the data is suggesting a CHANGE by next week. The map below shows "Temperature Anomaly" or the difference from the average. Notice, we are slightly above average now by 2-6 degree. The hottest day this week will likely be Thursday with highs in the upper 90s.

Now, let's look at the modeled temperature anomalies for next week. How does 10-12 degrees BELOW average sound for the first week of July? The map below is for Tuesday, July 2nd. That would easily have highs in the low 80s, if it verified.

We will keep a close eye on the data over the next few days, but it's looking good so far. These are just models. We still have to wait and see, but the 4th of July could be the most comfortable in years. Let's hope.

Ryan

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More Active Weather

Last night was pretty active. We had some damage around Brinkley, AR and a lot of rain! I have some updates on my Facebook page by clicking here: https://www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather

Unfortunately, we have more active weather over the next 36 hours. While today will be mostly dry, we have storms coming in tonight and tomorrow. Here's the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow, which shows an elevated risk of severe weather for all of Region 8:

If you break down the probabilities of severe weather, from Region 8 to the Ohio Valley has the best chance of seeing severe weather:

More than likely, the greater risk of severe weather may be East of us (as they will see the storms in the most unstable part of the day), but that does not mean you need to let your guard down. Here is some model data to show how this might unfold. This first map is for this evening, where large tornadoes are possible from Oklahoma to SW Missouri. We should be mostly dry for our Friday evening:

Fast-forward to lunch on Saturday and it looks quite stormy. This is when we could be dealing with some severe weather in Region 8:

Remember, you can get instant warnings on Twitter by following @Region8News and on Facebook on the Region 8 News page. 

The BEST thing to have for your mobile phone is to have it setup to receive alerts straight from KAIT. On a desktop computer, go here and setup your phone: http://www.kait8.com/category/217781/52488-email-and-text-alerts-control-center

I'll be watching the storms tonight until 10:30 and Sarah and Bryan will be watching the storms tonight and tomorrow. This is my last day of work for a few days. :)

Have great weekend!

Ryan

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Reflecting On the Moore, OK Tornado

Bryan McCormick and I sat in the Storm Center this afternoon watching this tornado unfold. We have the ability to access the Oklahoma City Doppler radar site on StormTRACK Doppler 8. The images we were seeing as the storm moved into Moore, OK were astonishing. But, they were not as horrific as the images after the storm passed. The above picture is from the AP. It shows a mother carrying her child from property of Plaza Towers Elementary.This is the site where several children died today because of this violent tornado.

I showed this image at 6:00 when the Associated Press released it on Twitter. I started my weathercast with it and a flood of emotions hit me while I was live on air.

I'm a dad. I have 4 kids and instantly I thought of them. I pictured each one of them in the arms of my wife. I pictured each one of them going through a scary moment in their life. I thought of the feeling this mother must have had when she KNEW her child was not one of the dead. I also thought about the parents that did not carry their children home tonight. That's tough to think about...

Tornadoes are real. They disrupt life. They kill people. They kill children. They are to be taken seriously.

Far too often, the meteorology community gets giddy about storms, and tornadoes. Far too often, the weather community gets excited when the ingredients are coming together for a severe weather event. I'm sure I'm guilty.... especially in my younger days.

I promise to never get giddy over tornadoes again. A colleague of mine, Dave Freeman, at KSN once reminded a group of us to never root for the tornado. ALWAYS root for people. Wise advice.

So, tonight... as I sit in the storm center watching a decaying line of storms move into Region 8, I pray for the families that lost loved ones. I'm not sure if this is right or not, but I'm praying even more for the parents that lost children. I simply can't imagine the pain.

Pause and pray for all of the victims in the Southern Plains that have been impacted over the past couple of days. Also, hug your kids.

Ryan

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May 2013 and The Law of Averages

Look at how much the country has changed in less than 2 weeks! We had snow for the first time on record in May less than two weeks ago, and those same places were in the 90s today! Look at the highs today compared to the snow cover from 12 days ago:

May started out extremely cool, but we may make up for it over the next 2 weeks. Here is a graph showing the highs we saw compared to the average highs:

As of right now, the average temperature for May 2013 is 60.8 degrees. The coolest May on record was in 1976 with an average temperature of 61.4 degrees. As I look at the long range forecast, we may see temperatures above average for the rest of the month, which will raise the average, significantly. I still think this May will be in the Top 10 coolest. I'll keep you posted!

Enjoy the warm weather!

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Record Breaking Snow?

If it snows in Northwest Arkansas tonight or tomorrow morning, it will be the latest snow in the state of Arkansas on record! Since records were kept, it has never snowed in Arkansas in the month of May. The latest "accumulating" snow was 0.2" at Corning on April 24, 1910 and the latest non accumulating snow was in Fayetteville, Gravette, Harrison on April 30, 1903. I did some research to actually SEE the report of the latest accumulating snow in Corning from 1910. Take a look for yourself by clicking to enlarge:

Sure enough, it snow on April 24th, 1910 in Corning, AR! While it is interesting to note that the measurement was scribbled out and changed, it shows that they had a dusting! Look at the "remarks" as well. It talks about how the farmers were WAY behind because of the rain and cool temperatures. Sound familiar?

I love looking back at old weather data. I hope you enjoy it as well. I'll be showing this on Region 8 News tonight, so tune in!

Ryan

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