Is This An Abnormal Summer?

A lot of people have been asking me if this summer has been "abnormal". We first must ask ourselves, "is there a such thing as 'normal' in weather"? Many times in our business, the words "normal" and "average" are used as synonyms. I'm guilty of using of using the word "normal" from time-to-time, but usually use the word "average". An average is what-it-is because there are higher numbers and lower numbers. Let's look at the rainfall in August over the past 5 years:

2008: 4.57" VERY WET
2009: 4.17" VERY WET
2010: 0.24" VERY DRY
2011: 2.49" WET
2012: 3.82" WET

The 30 year average for August is 2.54". So far, we have had 3.23" this August and we are only halfway through the month. So, is it abnormal? Let's just say... we are above average! If you just take the first 12 days of August, we are 2.24" above average so far.

We have had measurable rainfall for the past 10 days, which has made us feel like the entire Summer has been wet, but actually, July's rainfall was below average... barely.

It's all about the averages. Some months are wetter than average and some months are drier than average. This happens to be one of the above average years for rainfall in August.

To see this graphically, here is the climate graph for 2013. First, here is a legend:

For those wanting dry weather, the rain chances are much lower today and almost 0% Wed-Fri. In addition, low humidity and sunshine will take over Region 8!

Have a great day,
Ryan

Read More

Changes Coming To The Region 8 Storm TEAM

As some of you may have heard, we have some changes coming to the Region 8 Storm TEAM. Justin Logan is returning to the team. Justin has been with Raycom Media for several years. He started at KAIT in 2008, but has been at our Columbus, GA station for the past couple of years. On social media, Justin posted this: 

"

"God has blessed me with this great opportunity and I am excited! KAIT is an awesome station with great people that I look forward to working with again" -Justin

It's great to have Justin back at KAIT, but when you add someone, it typically means that you are losing someone. Sarah Tipton will be leaving KAIT in the next 2 weeks. She has a great opportunity that will make for a better time with her family. I'm always proud to see people making very intentional decisions for their family. Here's what she posted on her Facebook page this morning:

"My last 13 days at KAIT have begun. Friday, August 2nd, I wrap up my time here. Justin Logan is returning to the Region 8 StormTEAM and will take over GMR8. He will do well, and I trust him to take over the place I have held the last five years. This moment is bittersweet and fraught with stress and emotion. I’ve spent 7 years in broadcast meteorology, won an award or two, and loved almost every moment of this career. The station and I are parting ways so I can focus on family and a better lifestyle. I am going to work at Sissy’s Log Cabin and am thankful the crew at the Jonesboro store has been so welcoming. This time brings to mind one of the two inscriptions on the Rhodes College Halliburton Tower bell: “Not fare well, but fare forward, voyagers.”- Sarah

I'm excited for both of them as they transition to new parts of their life. I've known both of them since they started in this business and I'm very proud of them. 

So, starting next month, the Region 8 Storm TEAM will be Bryan, Justin, and I. I can't say enough great things about these two guys. They are coworkers, but I also consider them great friends. I've been blessed to work with some great people at KAIT and that is not changing. It makes me happy.

Have a great day,

Ryan

Read More

Changes Heading Into July?

It's hot and we will stay hot over the next couple of days, but the data is suggesting a CHANGE by next week. The map below shows "Temperature Anomaly" or the difference from the average. Notice, we are slightly above average now by 2-6 degree. The hottest day this week will likely be Thursday with highs in the upper 90s.

Now, let's look at the modeled temperature anomalies for next week. How does 10-12 degrees BELOW average sound for the first week of July? The map below is for Tuesday, July 2nd. That would easily have highs in the low 80s, if it verified.

We will keep a close eye on the data over the next few days, but it's looking good so far. These are just models. We still have to wait and see, but the 4th of July could be the most comfortable in years. Let's hope.

Ryan

Read More

More Active Weather

Last night was pretty active. We had some damage around Brinkley, AR and a lot of rain! I have some updates on my Facebook page by clicking here: https://www.facebook.com/ryanvaughanweather

Unfortunately, we have more active weather over the next 36 hours. While today will be mostly dry, we have storms coming in tonight and tomorrow. Here's the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow, which shows an elevated risk of severe weather for all of Region 8:

If you break down the probabilities of severe weather, from Region 8 to the Ohio Valley has the best chance of seeing severe weather:

More than likely, the greater risk of severe weather may be East of us (as they will see the storms in the most unstable part of the day), but that does not mean you need to let your guard down. Here is some model data to show how this might unfold. This first map is for this evening, where large tornadoes are possible from Oklahoma to SW Missouri. We should be mostly dry for our Friday evening:

Fast-forward to lunch on Saturday and it looks quite stormy. This is when we could be dealing with some severe weather in Region 8:

Remember, you can get instant warnings on Twitter by following @Region8News and on Facebook on the Region 8 News page. 

The BEST thing to have for your mobile phone is to have it setup to receive alerts straight from KAIT. On a desktop computer, go here and setup your phone: http://www.kait8.com/category/217781/52488-email-and-text-alerts-control-center

I'll be watching the storms tonight until 10:30 and Sarah and Bryan will be watching the storms tonight and tomorrow. This is my last day of work for a few days. :)

Have great weekend!

Ryan

Read More

Reflecting On the Moore, OK Tornado

Bryan McCormick and I sat in the Storm Center this afternoon watching this tornado unfold. We have the ability to access the Oklahoma City Doppler radar site on StormTRACK Doppler 8. The images we were seeing as the storm moved into Moore, OK were astonishing. But, they were not as horrific as the images after the storm passed. The above picture is from the AP. It shows a mother carrying her child from property of Plaza Towers Elementary.This is the site where several children died today because of this violent tornado.

I showed this image at 6:00 when the Associated Press released it on Twitter. I started my weathercast with it and a flood of emotions hit me while I was live on air.

I'm a dad. I have 4 kids and instantly I thought of them. I pictured each one of them in the arms of my wife. I pictured each one of them going through a scary moment in their life. I thought of the feeling this mother must have had when she KNEW her child was not one of the dead. I also thought about the parents that did not carry their children home tonight. That's tough to think about...

Tornadoes are real. They disrupt life. They kill people. They kill children. They are to be taken seriously.

Far too often, the meteorology community gets giddy about storms, and tornadoes. Far too often, the weather community gets excited when the ingredients are coming together for a severe weather event. I'm sure I'm guilty.... especially in my younger days.

I promise to never get giddy over tornadoes again. A colleague of mine, Dave Freeman, at KSN once reminded a group of us to never root for the tornado. ALWAYS root for people. Wise advice.

So, tonight... as I sit in the storm center watching a decaying line of storms move into Region 8, I pray for the families that lost loved ones. I'm not sure if this is right or not, but I'm praying even more for the parents that lost children. I simply can't imagine the pain.

Pause and pray for all of the victims in the Southern Plains that have been impacted over the past couple of days. Also, hug your kids.

Ryan

Read More

May 2013 and The Law of Averages

Look at how much the country has changed in less than 2 weeks! We had snow for the first time on record in May less than two weeks ago, and those same places were in the 90s today! Look at the highs today compared to the snow cover from 12 days ago:

May started out extremely cool, but we may make up for it over the next 2 weeks. Here is a graph showing the highs we saw compared to the average highs:

As of right now, the average temperature for May 2013 is 60.8 degrees. The coolest May on record was in 1976 with an average temperature of 61.4 degrees. As I look at the long range forecast, we may see temperatures above average for the rest of the month, which will raise the average, significantly. I still think this May will be in the Top 10 coolest. I'll keep you posted!

Enjoy the warm weather!

Read More

Record Breaking Snow?

If it snows in Northwest Arkansas tonight or tomorrow morning, it will be the latest snow in the state of Arkansas on record! Since records were kept, it has never snowed in Arkansas in the month of May. The latest "accumulating" snow was 0.2" at Corning on April 24, 1910 and the latest non accumulating snow was in Fayetteville, Gravette, Harrison on April 30, 1903. I did some research to actually SEE the report of the latest accumulating snow in Corning from 1910. Take a look for yourself by clicking to enlarge:

Sure enough, it snow on April 24th, 1910 in Corning, AR! While it is interesting to note that the measurement was scribbled out and changed, it shows that they had a dusting! Look at the "remarks" as well. It talks about how the farmers were WAY behind because of the rain and cool temperatures. Sound familiar?

I love looking back at old weather data. I hope you enjoy it as well. I'll be showing this on Region 8 News tonight, so tune in!

Ryan

Read More

Record Cold Start to May?

If the last three runs of the GFS are correct, we could be quite chilly on Friday and Saturday. The GFS and Canadian model show the upper-level low cutting off and going over Region 8. This would result in clouds, showers, and cool temperatures. It might result in some hail producing storms as well.

One of the most difficult things to explain on TV is a record low maximum. Friday's record low maximum is 59. Meaning, that out of all of the "high" temperatures on record, 59 is the coolest. We could easily break that record in Jonesboro on Friday. Right now, we have a forecast high of only 53 degrees. Some data suggests that we may not make it out of the 40s. That is CRAZY for May 3rd!

One fly in the ointment would be if we stay into the 60s until after midnight on Thursday night into Friday morning. In that case, the "official" high would be to warm to break a record. We will watch the track of the upper-level low closely over the next few days.

Here's a 3D look:

Are you tired of cold air?

Ryan

Read More

Region 8 Fishing Forecast

I recently talked with a gentleman in Walnut Ridge about fishing. He told me that the feeding activity of fish is largely dependent on the barometric pressure. I studied up on the subject and found out that many people believe this theory and that it's been studied enough to have thresholds on Poor, Good, and Great fishing activity. It's such a well-taken theory that many sporting goods stores sell fishing barometers like this one:

So, I took this information and made a special graphic and colortable. Next, I made a legend for the viewer. Lastly, I took the forecast pressure data for the next 48 hours, mapped and animated it to the new color table and this is what I got... 

The fishing forecast tonight was pretty good...

It's is expected to take a little dip tomorrow afternoon and evening...

But, by Wednesday, it goes back up and looks good all day on Wednesday!

So, here's my question. Is this something that people are interested in seeing? Is it worth the 30-45 seconds during my 3 minutes of weather? Should I only show it on Thursday and Friday? Or, is it worthless?

Comment on Facebook, tweet me, comment here, or email me at ryan@kait8.com and share your thoughts.

Take care,

Ryan

Read More

A Look Back At April 10, 2013

The above image was at 4:30 PM, when a tornado was confirmed SW of Clinton. Judging by the pics, it was a monster storm. That storm barely clipped Region 8, but a second area of rotation caused more of an issue. It formed just SE of this area about an hour or so later. Here are some pics sent to us of Damage from Horseshoe Bend from Holly Whitworth... I'm sure the NWS will be surveying this tomorrow.

So far, we have not heard of any injuries. I hope that stays true. It's amazing how fortunate Region 8 has been lately. We can rebuild, we can clean up, and we replant trees. Having injuries and deaths are tough to recover from.

The storms are still moving out of Region 8, but they are not nearly as dangerous as they were earlier today. Sleep well tonight, everyone!

Ryan

Read More

SPC Outlook for April 9th and 10th

The Storm Prediction Center is a branch of NOAA and the NWS that issue outlooks on severe weather, severe weather watches, discussions on ongoing severe weather (MDs), and fire outlooks. Before I wanted to go the television route, this was my dream job. Maybe I'll do that when I grow up.

Let's first talk about the Day 1 outlook for today, April 9th. This is an animation showing the probability of hail, probability of damaging wind, probability of a tornado, and the actual Day 1 outlook:

Notice there is a moderate risk (red) for parts of Texas and Oklahoma. We talked about this possibility last night at 10:00. The probabilities of severe weather dictate the outlooks. Look at this conversion chart from the SPC:

 So, by looking at this chart, the reason that parts of OK/TX are in a moderate risk are not specially because of the tornado threat (10%) and not specifically for damaging winds (30%), but for large hail, with a 45% hatched area. That means that there is a 45% chance of severe hail (1"+) with 25 miles of any given point in that area. The "hatched" area means there is a 10% or greater chance of significant, severe hail of 2" or greater! The Day 1 outlook is broken down to the three forms of severe weather: hail, wind, and tornadoes.

The Day 2 outlook combines all three for the probability and the conversion chart is different. Here's the Day 2 outlook and probability of severe weather:

If you notice, there is a large area with a 45% probability of severe weather. The conversion table is different on the Day 2 outlooks. Here is the chart:

  So, why is there not a moderate risk on the Day 2 outlook? WELL, while there is a 45% probability of severe weather, it is not a HATCHED area (yet) for significant, severe weather. This Day 2 outlook is the closest to a moderate risk without being a moderate risk that I have seen from the SPC. But, their reasoning make perfect sense.

If SPC still thinks there is a 45% chance of severe weather tomorrow, there will at least be a moderate risk for Region 8. We will wait and see.

Have a great day. More on the severe weather threat later today here and online.... and on Twitter at @ryanvaughan throughout the day!

Ryan

Read More

One More Cold and Dreary Day!

I'm so sick of the colder weather, but at least the colder weather yields no severe weather. It has been a LONG time since we have gone through the first week of April without severe weather. So, cold weather is not always bad. Today may be a record-breaker. Our forecast high is 49. If we only go to 49 degrees, it will be the coldest high temperature on record for Jonesboro. We'll watch it... To finish this blog post, here's a short video...

Have a great day! Mid and upper 60s tomorrow and 70s this weekend!

-Ryan

Read More

Cold March and Severe Weather

Many people have asked if this is the coldest March ever. The answer is no, but it is one of the coldest! Here is a list of the Top 10 Coldest Marches on record so far (from NWS Memphis). If the month ended today, it would be the 6th coldest on record with an average temperature of 44.2 degrees. This month is not on the list until the month is over:

As you can see, it has been a long time since it has been this cold in March. One recent year that shows up in the Top 10 is 1996. I decided to see how much severe weather we had in April, following such a cold March. In Northeast, AR, the severe weather reports were VERY low. In fact, there were ZERO tornadoes in April of 1996 in Northeast Arkansas and ZERO in May of 1996. With that said, in north-central Arkansas, there was an F4 tornado in Stone and Izard county that killed 7 people on April 14th. There was also a severe weather outbreak on the 20-21 that produced numerous tornadoes in Indiana and Illinois, but Region 8 was spared.

So, what do we draw from that? Honestly, not that much.The overall pattern was not too far off from what we have now, but that is still only one year. Sure, there was only one significant tornado in the Spring of 1996 in Region 8, but it only takes 1 significant tornado to cause huge problems. Let's still be prepared for April and May, but hope for the best!

Ryan

Read More

Update to the Almanac Blog

Here's an update to the Almanac Blog. Sandy Anders sent me this image from her Farmer's Almanac:

It snowed on March 21st. So, did the Almanac call for it? Well, the Farmer's Almanac is the king of being vague enough to be accurate. If your local meteorologist calls for snow by 3PM and it starts at 5PM, we get complaints. If we call for 3" of snow and we get 5", people complain. If the Almanac calls for snow somewhere between Fayettville, AR to Bristol, TN and was off by a week... people say it nailed the forecast. If you notice, it says "Sunny and Warm" during the period that it actually snowed. It also says that we should be warm right now. The temperature was 31 at my house this morning and we are 15 degrees below average.

Here's the deal. I don't hate the Farmer's Almanac. I'm just not a fan of people saying it is accurate. It's a publication based on climatology, large areas, and vague generalities.

It's good to use for average planting times, sunrise/sunsets, moon phases, etc. I would not plan a wedding on it though! :)

Thanks to Sandy for the pic of the page! I have been asking around for it!

Ryan

Read More

Farmers Almanac And The Snow

EDIT: New info and blog in reference to blog below. Click here

Last week when it snowed, I had a few people tweet me that the Farmer's Almanac called for this snow months ago. I really did not believe that, so I kept asking people for a copy of the Almanac  Last night, Allison Munn sent me this page from the Farmer's Almanac. Click the image to enlarge:

I do not see anything that refers to the very cold air and snow we have had lately, but maybe I'm missing something. Is there another copy or version? I'm not talking about online version because they change daily based on the forecast, which is not your typical Farmer's Almanac. So, do you have a different version that says it would snow? If so, email it to me at ryan@kait8.com or tweet me a pic at @ryanvaughan 

Stay warm!

Ryan

Read More

How Did We Do on the Spring Snow?

As always, after big storms, I like to check how we performed on the forecast. I do this to learn something for the next time it happens. This storm was the latest snowfall I had ever forecast. Late season/ early Spring snowfalls are rare and they are different storms than we deal with in the middle of winter. As I look at our forecast and what really happened, I can clearly see one positive and one negative.

The positive is that we clearly pinpointed where it would snow and where it would not. Some data suggested the snow would be a little farther south and some data suggested that the snow would stay in Missouri. I feel we nailed the rain/snow line.

The negative is that I underestimated the totals. We thought the highest snowfall would be 5", but some places saw 7-8". I thought that the warmth from last week, the late season timing, surface temperatures, etc would hold the numbers down, but apparently not. Now, with that said, you had to measure the snow early today before it started melting! So, here is the data. The first map shows the official snow reports to the National Weather Service and CoCoRaHS observers. The second map is the forecast we had for this storm for most of the week.

SNOW REPORTS:

OUR FORECAST:

Overall, I'm pleased. Now, it's time to start the transition to severe weather mode. I have a feeling that April and May are going to be active.

Take care,
Ryan

Read More

Spring Snow 2013, Thursday 12:00 AM Update

I'm staying up late to check more data, plus March Madness begins later today... so I'm excited. Our forecast has not changed much, but here are the bullet points:

• Snow and rain will start by mid afternoon.
• Most of the precipitation will fall sometime between 4PM and Midnight.
• Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly rain.
• Some parts of Region 8 will see mostly snow through midnight. 
• It will be hard (but possible) to see accumulation on the roads.
• Any snow you get will melt fast.

StormCAST is our in-house computer model at KAIT. It shows you how wacky the weather will be later today. It's having a tough time trying to determine where the rain will be and where the snow will be falling at 6:00 PM:

There are a lot of maps floating around on TV and the internet concerning accumulation. Some of the maps are straight from models, showing snowfall totals based on algorithms. If I do not "somewhat" agree with these maps, I try not to post, tweet, or blog using them. Some forecasters may disagree with my thinking and I respect that opinion. I just think it causes confusion. I may show them to show model inconsistencies, but will mention that when I post them. 

A second type of map is a manually made FORECAST that shows you the best possible accumulations based on our analysis of all of the data. So, tonight I have posted two types of maps. One is our forecast and one is StormCAST , which if you look closely, is not too far from our forecast. I just think we'll see a little more in the Ozarks and a wider snow band.

First, our forecast:

Second, the latest data from stormCAST:

We have a new round of data that comes in tomorrow morning and I'll be up bright and early to see if anything changes. This storm is going to be fun to watch unfold, regardless of the outcome!

Stay tuned!

Ryan

Read More

Spring Snow, Wednesday PM Update

I have adjusted the map a little this afternoon. As I mentioned, this is a very tricky forecast and you will see many different forecasts out there. That's how tricky forecasts typically unfold. Our forecast is probably lower than many, but I think it is going to be tough to get this snow to accumulate. It's a late season snow, it's a wet snow, it will melt fast, and will compact easily. There are many variables against a huge snowfall, but if the cold air and moisture are there... it "could" be a little more than our current forecast.

Today's snowfall map (above) was adjusted to bring the possible accumulations a little farther south and east. I also adjusted the numbers to reflect the possiblity of 3" in the white areas. With that said, LOOK AT THE LOWER NUMBERS, TOO! Far too often, we forecast 1-3" and people only see 3". If you took the lower end of our current forecast, the highest amount for the entire area would be 3". Remember that. ;)

So, now we wait and see. Only a couple more model runs will come in before it arrives. Let's see what happens! Fun times.

Ryan

Read More

Spring Break Snowfall Update

It's about 11:15 am as I write this and we have not had a lot of change in our thinking for tomorrow's snowfall. Latest data still supports the map that I showed in yesterday's blog post. You can read that post by CLICKING HERE. Since that blog post, more counties have been added to Arkansas. Stay tuned! In case you missed it, Bryan just showed the latest data from our in-house computer model. I think it is doing a good job! Here it is:

Read More

Spring Snow Possible

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of Region 8, so I figured we need to chat about this possible Winter Storm on the blog. As always, let me lay out some bullet points for this storm to answer most questions:

• The snow threat is for late Thursday and Thursday Night.
• This storm has a high chance of "busting" (being forecast wrongly)
• The highest snow totals will be in the Ozarks.
• Roads may not get too bad due to recent warm days and temperatures not too cold during event.
• Thundersnow is possible.
• Some people will get NO SNOW.

So, let me start by saying that some of the stress that goes along with forecasting snow has been removed since many kids are out of school for Spring Break! That helps, because this storm is going to be a PAIN. As you see in the above graphic that I made this evening, some places will see a decent snowfall if our forecast does not change.

This is a "conditional" storm, meaning if the conditions have to be just right. We may have snow with temperatures above 32. Also, we have had warm temperatures lately...  so how that impacts the accumulation is somewhat of a mystery.

Most of the data shows snow in Region 8. Amounts and location of heaviest snow varies quite a bit, but the Euro, Canadian, GFS, NAM, StormCAST, RPM all show snow in Region 8 on Thursday PM.

We're watching it closely! Stay tuned to my Twitter feed at @ryanvaughan and stay tuned to Bryan McCormick tomorrow morning..

-Ryan

Read More

Tricky Weekend Forecast

The weekend forecast is going to be a doozy. Region 8 spans 22 counties and on Sunday, some parts of Region 8 could be in the 40s, while others are near 70! We've gained more confidence in Saturday's forecast, with all of Region 8 seeing highs in the mid 60s to around 70, with colder air JUST to our north (north of the front). Here's the Euro model for Saturday. Click image to enlarge:

Sunday is when it gets fun! The Euro shows a SHARP temperature gradient across Region 8! The front dips in from the north. Some of us are warm and some of us are cold! Here's what the Euro shows for Sunday afternoon highs. Click image to enlarge:

Here's the tough part. Not all of the data agrees with the position of the front. Take a look at the NAM for the forecast highs on Sunday. Let me say, I believe it has the front pushing too far South:

SO, as a broadcaster, we have a few challenges. First, how do we plot the temperature on the 7 day forecast? I plan to make a special graphic that pops out of the 7 day forecast to show a map of the temps. Tell me tonight if it works and is understandable! Second challenge is to explain the difficulty of this forecast. That's why I'm blogging, but I plan to make a graphic tonight to explain it as well. On Monday and Tuesday, I made a similar graphic. We have known for several days that the weekend forecast would be tough! Stay tuned!

Ryan

Read More

Is Winter OVER?

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a big fan of Winter. If I could wishcast, the answer to the title of this blog would be YES. However, my wishcasting typically does not work out too well. So, is Winter over? If you answer that question by questioning if we will have any more "significant" winter storms that impact travel, I would say winter is likely over. If you answer that question by cold temperatures, it's not over at all! In fact, many areas will drop to around freezing over the next couple of nights.

On average, Jonesboro's last freeze is around March 31st. The latest last freeze for Jonesboro was May 6th in 1927! That was a long time ago. In recent years, we had hard freeze in April of 2007 that hurt a lot of Spring vegetation. While that is possible, the chances of that happening again are low. Here were the lows on April 8, 2007. Graphic from the NWS in Little Rock:

I think Winter is winding down and the days of getting out of school and sledding are gone, but don't start planting flowers yet! We still have more freezing temperatures and frost over the next couple of weeks.

Let me leave you on a bright note... We're expecting 70s on Saturday!!!

-Ryan

Read More

Snow is Close, But Just Rain...

When you get an upper-level low to swing right over your state, the forecast can become difficult. Mainly because you have a pool of cold air aloft that can support some surprise snow for somebody! It think we will be safe this time, though. As Bryan McCormick talked about through the weekend, the surface temperatures should stay warm enough to prevent any surprises. The storm does look a little slower than it looked when I left work on Friday. Here's how it breaks down. Rain really starts moving in here this evening:

The above image is the RPM model at 9PM. You can clearly make out the Low in Eastern OK. In fact, dry air may already be pushing in from the south. This shows showers and storms really pushing in from the Southwest. Let's fast-forward to the middle of the night...

By 1AM, we will likely have snow falling in NW Arkansas in spots and in SW Missouri. Look how close the heavy the snow is to Region 8! Whew! Looks like we will be dealing with rain and maybe some thunder, but no snow. The snow goes down to TX!

Tomorrow morning, heavy snow is passing north of us in Missouri. We will still have some leftover showers, but drier air will be moving in from the SW. I still would not rule out some flakes of snow in the Ozarks or South-Central MO.

Overall, it's not a big deal for us, but a HUGE problem NW of us! If you have travel plans in that direction over the next 24 hours, reconsider.

Ryan

Read More

Wintry Weather or The Tooth Fairy?

If you read the blog regularly, you know that I like to look back at severe storm coverage to see what went right and what went wrong. Wintry weather is no different. Let's look back at what we showed on Wednesday night and compare it to what really happened. First, 7:00 this morning. We had some sleet and spotty areas of freezing rain prior to daybreak, but the bulk of the precipitation was still west of us. 

As you can see in the above image, StormCAST had a pretty good grasp of the setup. Some people commented on my Facebook page early in the morning that we "blew the forecast", but we said that most of the precip would fall during the daytime hours on Thursday. Sometimes, I think people want wintry weather to be like the Tooth Fairy... It HAS to come while you are sleeping. It does not always happen that way.

So, this is what we showed on Wednesday night for the middle of the day on Thursday ...

This is what was actually happening... Not too shabby.

Looking at the forecast and then looking at reality, I think the forecast was going pretty well. Here's where it started to go a little astray. We had a hard time warming above freezing in the afternoon! In fact, the freezing rain continued in Jonesboro and Paragould until 2:00 or so. That's the one thing that became frustrating, but once again... here's what we showed Wednesday night for Thursday afternoon:

This is what what actually happened...

So, looking back... The forecast was not that far off. The rain was a little heavy and the >32 temps were about 3 hours off. I can live with that.

Have a great night!
Ryan

Read More

It is ICING!

I'm sitting in the Storm Center this afternoon watching the power outages increase. The storm is unfolding close to how we thought it would unfold, but we are not warming fast enough. Many locations are STILL at 32 or below and the icing continues. The worst icing is still in the places we thought it would be and despite what kids across Region 8 were thinking, we knew most of the precip would fall during the daytime hours.

The only surprise so far (from our initial thoughts) has been how hard it has become to warm above freezing in Jonesboro and Paragould. As I type this at 2PM, we are right at 32. This is not good as freezing rain continues to fall. We're still expected to warm between now and tonight and we should change to plain ole rain soon.

Full update at 5:00 and 6:00.

Read More