It's Snowing, 12,000 Feet Above Us!

If you glanced at radar tonight and saw "stuff" over your area, but nothing was falling from the sky... You can sleep well tonight knowing that you are not nuts. The radar was detecting snow falling aloft. So, it was snowing... it was just snowing WAAAY up there. As the atmosphere gets a little juicier, we'll see some of this stuff hit the ground. It's going to be VERY light and little (if any) accumulation is expected.

Tonight's radiosonde (weather balloon) from Little Rock shows the dry air. That's a complicated image, but here's what you can take from it... When the two white lines are farther apart, the air is drier. Notice, they are closer higher in the sky (where it is snowing), but farther apart down low (where it is evaporating... actually sublimating)... but anywho, that's a Skew T.

I'm going to sleep now.

Good night,

Ryan

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"Light" Wintry Mix Possible

News starts in 5 minutes, so there is not much time to blog. BUT the chance for some Wintry Weather still exists on Wednesday. At this time, I think we will have more sleet than anything and it will be VERY light. The only problems will be on a few bridges and overpasses.

I'll chat more about it later.

Ryan

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"Chance" of Snow Before 2010

The NAM model is trying to show some snow for us on Wednesday morning. Models are not agreeing too well on this system, but we will need to watch it. Most data shows some upper-level energy, but the NAM shows a slightly stronger "vort" max or "spin" in the atmosphere and more moisture surging in from the Gulf of Mexico. This solution is not out of the question and the NAM did decent with the last system, so it does hold some water.

The above image is the "overview" window of BUFKIT showing the same NAM model. Timestamp goes right to left... and you can see the blue bars on the right side of the screen indicate some snow on Wed AM. Using a 12:1 ratio, it is showing about 2" of snow. As a reminder, this is a computer model and not Gospel, so don't get excited. I will not make ANY accumulation forecast until Tuesday Night. I'm simply putting it on your radar screen. For those of you  that simply want a snowfall accum. map of this model, peep this... Once again, this is a model and NOT a forecast...

            

For the record, the GFS model is also showing "some" precip, but it's more of a "Flurry" situation.

Stay tuned,

Ryan

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Lots of Flooding

Here's a pic of the Greene County Rescue Squad helping a toddler and some young men from the flood waters in Greene County. We have said it time and time again, but PLEASE do not cross roads that have water over them. We still have a few more hours of rain and there will be more roads flooded. For a list of roads that are closed, click here: http://www.arkansashighways.com/roads/Web-road%20closings.htm

Be safe and stay tuned for more info,
Ryan

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Flurries OR White Christmas???

Some new data coming in tonight suggest that we "could" see more than flurries in some locations Thu into Fri. This is just one model run, so we'll have to see how this unfolds. It shows the low tracking a little more south and east. This would leave the moisture around when the cold air arrives.... briefly. The NW counties of Region 8 stand the best chance of seeing accumualtions, including Sharp, Stone, Izard, Fulton, Baxter, Oregon, and Howell. If you notice on the map, the GFS model even has some 1" totals near Pocahontas and Walnut Ridge. The rest of us, including Jonesboro are left in the "dusting" category.

I usually would not hop on one model run, but it's Christmas and I'm really wanting some flakes to fly! It was a nice surprise to see this shift in the forecast. Hopefully it pans out. More updates are to come on my Twitter feed on the right side of this page.

Merry Christmas!
Ryan

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Just Some Flurries...

It's just going to be too warm when the moisture is here. Earlier, it appeared that the low would trakc much farther South, leaving us in the cold part of the storm. Now it appears we are going to be too warm. There is still some wiggle room in the forecast, but it appears that the best we can hope for on Christmas is a round of flurries that "may" produce a dusting. In other words, the "little" blue bars are not good for those that want a White Christmas. I suppose flurries are better than nothing. Remember, the timestamps on this computer program (BUFKIT) go from right to left.

If this changes, I'll be sure to update the blog. In the meantime, have a GREAT Christmas! I'm back to work today.

Ryan

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White Christmas?

Take a deep breath and know that this is just a forecast and can change! Several pieces of data have consistantly shown snow falling on Christmas Eve. A deepening area of low pressure combined with cold air could provide us with some accumulating snow on Christmas Eve. IF I had to put a percentage of a "White Christmas" out there right now... I would say it sits at about 30%. It's so many days off that I can not go much higher than that.

The above graph shows 2 runs of of the GFS model and both show an accumulating snow on Christmas Eve..... The NAM does not go out that far.

We'll watch it closely and will tweak the forecast as needed!

Ryan

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My Boys Are Getting Old!

My oldest boy turned 7 this week and my youngest turned 5. I can't believe how fast they are growing. Two or three times over the past month I have heard people comment that they have never heard, "Man... I spent too much time with my kids as they were growing up". It never happens. It makes me feel guilty when I hear people with grown kids makes comments like that. I hope I am doing right!

My boys are awesome. Smart, well behaved, athletic young boys... (It's my blog and I can brag and say what I want!) I just hope that I have no regrets when they leave the home one day. I hope I feel like I spent time with them. I hope that I feel like I raised them in a Christian home. I hope they are good citizens of the community, servants of God, and men that carry integrity and honor. I hope they become great fathers and even better husbands.

I've written about Rick Burgess on my blog before. Rick is the DJ in Alabama that lost his young son in a pool accident. During the funeral, he looked over at the rest of his kids' and said that he no longer hopes and worries about the worldly achievements they may have in life, whether it involves schooling, sports, etc... He says that a as parents, our only job is to teach their kids about God, Jesus, and the principles and rules of the Lord. Everything else will fall in place.

Pray that I take that to heart.

For Fun, Go look at my at blog from December 2004: http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/2004_12_01_archive.html  Scroll down and look at the days when George was born. I WISH was blogging when Shad was born, too... Oh well. Can you believe the blog has been around since 2004!

Have a great weekend,
Ryan

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