Timing of The Squall Line

Big thanks to a fellow met in Memphis for reminding me of this link/model. The above image shows how this squall line could play out. Notice the narrow band of storms through Region 8 at daybreak. While it will be early in the morning, the chance for severe weather will exist. As I type this, a tornado watch has just been issued for parts of Region 8 in Missouri.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

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Early Morning Severe WX Threat

There is an amazing storm taking shape across the country, but will this storm be amazing for Region 8? As I look over a few things tonight in the Storm Center, I am starting to think we will see a decent squall line march across the Midsouth in the morning. First, we have some very moist air in place across the region. As I type this, dewpoints are already in the mid to upper 60s. Second... the winds aloft are ZIPPING!

The above image shows the 850mb winds for tomorrow morning. That's the wind about 5,000 feet above our head. Whenever those winds kick up a little, it's a red flag to watch for some strong storms in this environment.That alone has me concerned. In addition, the air should become more unstable...

The above image is the CAPE or instability. The yellow area nosing up the Mississippi River shows the unstable air moving northward ahead of this very dynamic storms system.

These ingredients suggest a strong line of storms could move through. The main threat will be WIND which is generated from the strong winds aloft. While WIND is the main threat, we can't rule out a tornado. We'll be watching it. Meteorologist Sarah Tipton will be in the storm center as this moves through and I'll be on standby as well.

One last note... We should not see a lot of rain from this system. About 0.25" is possible. As far as timing is concerned... Ozarks from 3-6AM, Ridge Area 6-9AM, Ridge to West TN 9AM-11AM.

Ryan

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Little Rock Storm

There was a Tornado Warning for Little Rock around 5:00 PM today. As of 5:50, there has not been a confirmed tornado and there are several bogus reports ongoing. I'm going to wait to see the official word from the NWS. These storm are starting to turn a little more to the East instead of Northeast. I really don't think we will see much severe weather here. Lightning? Probably. Heavy rain? Probably in some areas...I'm just not sold on an "outbreak"

We're still watching it...

Ryan

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Still Watching This Weekend

I love it when the forecast does not change much. It still appears that the pattern is becoming more active and we should get some rain this weekend. In fact, I think most of Region 8 will see a one inch rainfall. The best chance appears to be Sunday, SOOO if you have plans to go to the ASU game at Noon on Saturday, I bet it will be dry. The better rain chance comes late Saturday. 

The above image shows the upper-level low. It will track NE over the next few days to influence our weather this weekend. At this point, I'm not too worked up for severe weather, All of the parameters aren't there.

Stay tuned!

Ryan

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Stormy Next Weekend?

The above image is a satellite shot of a storm system in the Pacific. This piece of energy in the atmosphere is going to slowly make it's way through the SW and looks to come into Region 8 next weekend. Sure, we have another system/front that will give us a few storms on Tuesday, but I'm really eyeballing this next storm system for next weekend. There are still some questions on the track of this storm, but it could potentially give us our first chance of rain for a Football Friday Night AND could make for our first rainy Saturday in a long time! That's not good for me! We have a double-header at the soccer field!

We'll watch it and will give you updates through the week. Tune in and watch J-Lo (Justin) tonight for a look at Tuesday's rain chances.

Have a great weekend! Back to watching more football....
Ryan

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Why It May Rain...

This evening, we have an upper level low in Kansas. It's giving them some showers and storms and THAT low is heading in our direction. These images are graphics that we do not show on air because many think you guys don't care... Maybe you don't, who knows! Anywho, in the above image (click to enlarge) you are looking at a graphic that shows where the upper-low is this evening. The oranges, red, and yellows show the vorticity or spin in the atmosphere. You can clearly see the low/disturbance is centered over SE Kansas. This next image is for tomorrow evening...

Notice it "opens up" a little as indicated by less contours. This is a sign of weakening as it moves SE. That's why I don't expect as much rain as what we saw in Kansas today. Even though it is weakening, notice that the low comes right over Arkansas. Given the track of the low, we should still see some scattered showers. If you see rain, email some pics or upload them to THE LOOP on http://www.kait8.com/

Have a good evening!
Ryan
ryan@kait8.com

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Local Helicorders & The Earthquake

Many of you think you felt the earthquake and according to local helicorders, you probably did! A helicorder is essentially a digital version of the seismograph that we've heard about for years. I pulled the data from several area helicorders from this morning and you can clearly see the earthquake:

LITTLE ROCK, AR:

OZARK FOLK CENTER:

LEPANTO, AR:

LAKE CHARLES, AR

As you can see, it jolted the state a little. Just for fun, I even pulled the helicorder from Poplar Bluff, MO and look what I found:

Very interesting! Have a great day!

Ryan

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Earthquake Confusion

This morning I'm sitting in the doctor's office and I read "Earthquake 3.8 near Monette" on Twitter from the USGS feed. I instantly ask on Twitter if anyone felt it. I thought to myself that if a 3.8 Earthquake was centered in Monette, I should have felt the booger! And I did not... That was odd to me, but I still relayed the information from the USGS.

When the map was released, my friend Todd Yakoubian at KATV in Little Rock noted that the MAP showed it centered near Guy, AR. And the confusion begins... Once the dust cleared, the USGS changed their location and it WAS centered near GUY and not MONETTE. Despite the corrected location, the 3.8 earthquake was felt through Region 8. Look at the map below that shows where is was felt:

On Thursday, I'm presenting at a workshop at the NWS in Memphis. The topic is around Social Media and weather, but I'm going to touch on other natural disasters, too. Following this morning's experience, I'm going to talk about how fast information (right OR WRONG) can spread across the region. We're in a totally new world when it comes to information distribution. It's lightning fast and when there needs to be a correction, it better be as fast as the wrong information that was released!

So... did anyone feel the Earthquake? I'd love to know. Also, check out Todd's blog. He has done a GREAT job covering the earthquakes in Guy, AR even prior to the larger one this morning! His blog can be found on the right side of this page.

Ryan

If you care to see the BAD info that came out at first, here's a screen grab:

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Stupid Smoke!

If you were in the Jonesboro area this evening, you know that the air quality was BAD. Farmers are burning their fields and it seems like they are burning a lot more this year! The rest of us have to suffer through it. Despite the burn ban, the fields are still being burned. Not sure how that works or if they are exempt. the Greene County officials tell me that nobody is exempt. I guess there is nobody to enforce the ban. Who knows...

Anywho, this problem was compounded this evening due to an atmospheric condition we call an inversion. Simply put, the air was warmer as you went up... briefly. Below is a Skew T from this evening. Actually, it's a model of the atmosphere. I have not seen the Little Rock Balloon data yet... but let's continue.

This is zoomed waaaay in on the bottom 2000 ft of the atmosphere profile. The red line shows the temperature. At 7:00 this evening the temperature at the surface was about 68 degrees. About 600' up, the air was roughly 72 degrees. Not much of a difference, but enough to "trap" the smoke and make us GAG!

As we go through the night, this may ease back a little. I just wish the burning would stop.

Ryan

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Big Temperature Gap Over 1 Mile!

Last night I was driving home through Crowley's Ridge. I noticed the temperature was 52 degrees on my car thermometer. As I drove, I saw it drop 2 degrees real fast and I instantly grabbed my camera and snapped a picture. As I drove down the hill, I knew what was happening. I was driving into a "cold pool" of air in the valley. At the bottom of the valley, the temperature had dropped to 41 degrees! That's an 11 degree drop in about a mile of roadway!!! (Side note: I was really geeking out watching the temperature drop!)

Now, I know what you are thinking... You've always heard that the temperatures drop as you go UP and not DOWN. You're right! That's why there is snow on top of mountains while it is 50-60 degrees at the bottom.

This is a different phenomenon though. We had a radiational inversion with clear skies and calm winds. This prevented any mixing of the winds, the heat from the day radiated out into the atmosphere, and the colder (more dense) air pooled into the valley. This is the same reason we often see fog in the valleys.

Below is the NAM model for midnight last night. This is a skew T which shows the temperature and dewpoint as you go UP through the atmosphere. If you notice, the air is much colder near the surface than it is slightly above the ground... yet as you go up, the temperature (red line) starts dropping again. That's why it's colder on top of a mountain! (That's another subject though)...

So, if you live along Highway 358... in the area that ALWAYS drops phone calls, you were about 10 degrees colder than the higher points on the highway last night!

Have a great day!
Ryan

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