Chile Quake Detected in Region 8

Once again, we could see signs of the Chile Earthquake with the Helicorders in Region 8. A normal day with little to no activity looks like the first image which is the helicorder from 2 days ago. This is from Lepanto, AR, but all of the area helicorders had the same result.

This next one is from the overnight hours and you can see the shaking of the Earth! It's quite amazing actually! Does this mean there is a risk for us? From what I have studied, I do not think so. It's interesting to see the detection from Region 8 though!

NOW, there is a threat of a Tsunami. I encourage you to see the links from http://www.kait8.com/ to see the coverage from the Raycom Media Network in Hawaii. Great coverage from our coworkers in Hawaii.

Ryan

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Severe Weather and El Nino

So, I have been trying to find a correlation between El Nino and the upcoming severe weather season for the past few days. At first glance, I was a little concerened. I looked at the handwritten Obs logs that were taken here at KAIT from Terry Wood back in 1998. That was a Spring coming out of an El Nino winter (like we have now). The Spring of 1998 was a VERY BUSY severe weather season. Look at the logs from March, April, and May. Click the images to enlarge:

As you can see, this was the year of the fatal overnight tornado in Manila. If you notice, Terry noted several rounds of storms including a day in May where he said, "tornadoes were everywhere!"

So does that mean we are going to have an active severe weather season? At first, I thought so, but NOT SO FAST. We can also look at the Spring of 1987 which was coming off of an El Nino winter and look at how quiet it was:

So, can we derive any forecast from El Nino? I'm not completely sure, BUT the winter season was a little like 1998 across the US. I'm not completely sold on a correlation, especially after reading this research from a well respected meteorologist, Joe Schaefer: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schaefer/el_nino.htm

Here's the deal. We have had a couple of years without major severe weather. In fact, if you take out the major EF4 that tracked 123 miles across the state, the weather in Region 8 has been rather calm, tornadowise since the Marmaduke/Caruthersville tornado. Law of averages is going to win out... it usually does!

So, let's all get prepared NOW. Have a plan.... Get a weather radio.... Know what to look for in severe weather. No matter what the weather holds, we can take steps to be safer.

Ryan

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Spring Outlook

I'm looking over some old data logs to try to determine how active our Spring could be in Region 8. I should have something written up soon.

Ryan

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At Least 49 States With Snow

The jury is still out on Hawaii, but we know at least 49 states (the entire continental 48) in the US had  at least "some" snow on the ground this morning. This is amazing and possibly the first time in modern history it has occurred! Yes, even Florida had some snow on the ground in the wake of the southern snow storm yesterday (northern Walton Co.) . I wanted to make sure I blogged about this and archived the above map, because I'm not sure I will ever see this again in my life!

Ryan

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Skiing in Arkansas

Here's my favorite clip sent in to The Loop. I never thought I'd see skiing in Region 8, but with the winter we are having, I guess it makes sense!

Ryan

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Here We Go Again

Whether you call it Snowmageddon II or my favorite, Snowtorious B.I.G., another round of snow is coming into Region 8. As always, the rain/snow line is going to be VERY close and some places in Region 8 will see mostly rain. For the areas that stay all snow, they could see 5-10" again. In the latest data, it appears Central Arkansas (near Little Rock) may get hit a lot harder than their current forecast suggests.

Here's the deal. The forecast is TOUGH. I think there will be a "sweet spot" line up from Jonesboro to Little Rock... and in that sweet spot, so places may see 8-10". It's still a wait and see situation, but the data coming in tonight looks very snowy.

If you live closer to the I-40 areas in Eastern AR, your totals may be held down because of rain mixing in.

The graph below is the latest data straight from the models using the Cobb Algorithm.

Grease Up The Sleds again!
Ryan

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Snow on Monday?

Data continues to suggest some issues on Monday. "Somebody" will see a good bit of snow, but "where" is still in question. While the data shows a changeover to rain after a couple of inches of snow, I honestly think some places will see all snow. This is a forecast sounding for Jonesboro and the green bars indicate us switching to rain. I don't buy it. It think Jonesboro may switch to some sleet, but I'm not sold on us switching to rain. Our new SkyCam in Hardy may come in REALLY handy on Monday!

When and where it does snow, it could be heavy. With BUFKIT, we can look at where the snow growth regions will be located and when... We can also look at the "lift" in the atmosphere. Red contours show the lift and the yellow contours show the optimal places for snow to form. Just looking over the data shows some signs of another good snowfall in parts of region 8.

I'm sticking with my 2-4" for Jonesboro, but higher amounts NW into areas like Hardy, Mtn. View, and Salem.

We'll watch it,

Ryan

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Winter Is Not Over

As I type this, a wintry mix is falling outside. No concerns today. Temperatures are above freezing and it should change to all rain soon. The above graph from BUFKIT oddly goes from right to left. While I am not too concerned about today's storm, I do have a growing concern for Monday.

First off, it does not appear to be as bad as last week. While I don't like to pin down accumulations this far out, the potential exists for a 2-4" snowfall across parts of Region 8 on Monday. Once again, we are right on the line. Places along I-40 may get more rain than snow. If this storm shifts north or south, then the rain/snow line will shift too.

The model above is the 6Z GFS. To my surprise the GFS has done remarkably well for our region this Winter. Let's see if it keeps up... Typical El Nino year for us!

We'll be tracking it closely!
Ryan

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