Severe Threat Thursday

The above image shows the instability for tomorrow afternoon. One model (GFS) is much more unstable than another, so that poses a dilemma. I really want to see how things unfold today to determine what happens tomorrow. As of now, I'm leaning more toward the GFS and feel we need to prepare for an afternoon of severe weather... For kicks though, the below image is the NAM model, which has a weaker solution...

Now... even though this is the weaker solution, it STILL shows heavy rain and thunderstorms. We are only looking at the instability (CAPE) in the above images. Look at the estimated rainfall totals from the HPC:

I apologize for now blogging sooner. I've been busy lately!!!

Ryan

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Leaving For Vortex2

Here are some quick thoughts as I head out this morning. The SPC has the area I'm heading to in a Moderate Risk for tomorrow. I'm pretty confident that I will at least see some severe storms. We'll know in 36 hours! I may or may not update the blog while I'm out, but I will be tweeting on my Twitter Feed frequently. Also, look for a link to a LIVE STREAM from the dashboard of the Wood Ford StormTRACKER on http://www.kait8.com/!

Ryan

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Vortex 2, Here I Come

Well, it appears that I'm heading out Sunday to meet up with the Vortex 2 team for Monday. Judging by the SPC outlook, we may have some action on Monday in Oklahoma. If you do not know what Vortex 2 is, here's a link: http://www.vortex2.org/home/

Also, here's a picture I snagged from Kristin Kulman (@wxkristin) on Twitter of some of the Vortex 2 Armada during their down time:

While getting some cool video of storms will be a big plus, I'm interested in the scientific approach they are taking to learn more about tornadoes. I'm going to be getting interviews, seeing their equipment, looking over their analysis, and seeing what they are learning about storms and tornadoes. It should be a really cool  and informative piece to show on the news... if all goes well.

I'll keep you posted on my Twitter Feed.

Ryan

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At Least 10 Tornadoes in AR from Little Rock NWS

Little Rock NWS issued this statement:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201005040336-KLZK-NOUS44-PNSLZK

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Tornadoes And Radar

I had full intentions of going through every storm that produced a tornado and write up an analysis fo each one... but to be honest with you, I'm pooped and tired of looking at radar. I did want to grab the radar image of the strongest tornado that we had in Region 8 over the weekend. It was an EF3 on Friday night that destroyed Mt. Zion Baptist Church in Jackson County. If you missed Josh Harvision's story today, it is worth a click to http://www.kait8.com/ to watch...

Radar is not as simple as we somtimes make it out to be... Some see red and green beside each other and that automatically means TORNADO. Well, not all greens mean grean and not all reds mean red. I know you are wondering what the heck I'm talking about at this point... I'm talking about something we call "aliasing"

Velocity aliasing occurs when the hydrometeors speed "screw up" the algorithms used to calculate the speed. They are going faster than the maximum detectable velocity due to their speed and the motion of the storm. In other words, the bright green from Tupelo to Augusta should be bright red. The bright green near Weldon is legit. Bright greens are winds coming toward the radar site and the reds are winds going away from the radar site.... Therfore, the tornado is near Weldon or Shoffner... It's an EF3 at this point. Being at the end of the radar range increased the aliasing too.

I hope that makes sense... I'm still not caught up on sleep.

Goodnight,
Ryan

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Storm Surveys

Hey everyone, tomorrow I'm going to do a big write up on the weekend tornadoes, but I really just feel like sitting down with my wife to watch TV instead of looking at more radar images. In the meantime, look over this damage surveys from the NWS in Little Rock. I'm waiting to hear on the other surveys from the Memphis office. The most destructive is an EF3 in Jackson County:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=pns050210txt.htm

See you tomorrow,
Ryan

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