Severe Threat Thursday

The above image shows the instability for tomorrow afternoon. One model (GFS) is much more unstable than another, so that poses a dilemma. I really want to see how things unfold today to determine what happens tomorrow. As of now, I'm leaning more toward the GFS and feel we need to prepare for an afternoon of severe weather... For kicks though, the below image is the NAM model, which has a weaker solution...

Now... even though this is the weaker solution, it STILL shows heavy rain and thunderstorms. We are only looking at the instability (CAPE) in the above images. Look at the estimated rainfall totals from the HPC:

I apologize for now blogging sooner. I've been busy lately!!!

Ryan