Snow is Close, But Just Rain...

When you get an upper-level low to swing right over your state, the forecast can become difficult. Mainly because you have a pool of cold air aloft that can support some surprise snow for somebody! It think we will be safe this time, though. As Bryan McCormick talked about through the weekend, the surface temperatures should stay warm enough to prevent any surprises. The storm does look a little slower than it looked when I left work on Friday. Here's how it breaks down. Rain really starts moving in here this evening:

The above image is the RPM model at 9PM. You can clearly make out the Low in Eastern OK. In fact, dry air may already be pushing in from the south. This shows showers and storms really pushing in from the Southwest. Let's fast-forward to the middle of the night...

By 1AM, we will likely have snow falling in NW Arkansas in spots and in SW Missouri. Look how close the heavy the snow is to Region 8! Whew! Looks like we will be dealing with rain and maybe some thunder, but no snow. The snow goes down to TX!

Tomorrow morning, heavy snow is passing north of us in Missouri. We will still have some leftover showers, but drier air will be moving in from the SW. I still would not rule out some flakes of snow in the Ozarks or South-Central MO.

Overall, it's not a big deal for us, but a HUGE problem NW of us! If you have travel plans in that direction over the next 24 hours, reconsider.

Ryan

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Wintry Weather or The Tooth Fairy?

If you read the blog regularly, you know that I like to look back at severe storm coverage to see what went right and what went wrong. Wintry weather is no different. Let's look back at what we showed on Wednesday night and compare it to what really happened. First, 7:00 this morning. We had some sleet and spotty areas of freezing rain prior to daybreak, but the bulk of the precipitation was still west of us. 

As you can see in the above image, StormCAST had a pretty good grasp of the setup. Some people commented on my Facebook page early in the morning that we "blew the forecast", but we said that most of the precip would fall during the daytime hours on Thursday. Sometimes, I think people want wintry weather to be like the Tooth Fairy... It HAS to come while you are sleeping. It does not always happen that way.

So, this is what we showed on Wednesday night for the middle of the day on Thursday ...

This is what was actually happening... Not too shabby.

Looking at the forecast and then looking at reality, I think the forecast was going pretty well. Here's where it started to go a little astray. We had a hard time warming above freezing in the afternoon! In fact, the freezing rain continued in Jonesboro and Paragould until 2:00 or so. That's the one thing that became frustrating, but once again... here's what we showed Wednesday night for Thursday afternoon:

This is what what actually happened...

So, looking back... The forecast was not that far off. The rain was a little heavy and the >32 temps were about 3 hours off. I can live with that.

Have a great night!
Ryan

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It is ICING!

I'm sitting in the Storm Center this afternoon watching the power outages increase. The storm is unfolding close to how we thought it would unfold, but we are not warming fast enough. Many locations are STILL at 32 or below and the icing continues. The worst icing is still in the places we thought it would be and despite what kids across Region 8 were thinking, we knew most of the precip would fall during the daytime hours.

The only surprise so far (from our initial thoughts) has been how hard it has become to warm above freezing in Jonesboro and Paragould. As I type this at 2PM, we are right at 32. This is not good as freezing rain continues to fall. We're still expected to warm between now and tonight and we should change to plain ole rain soon.

Full update at 5:00 and 6:00.

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Ice Storm 2013 Update, Wed 4:00 PM

Quick thoughts and then back to work!     

• Most of the precip (Freezing Rain/Rain/Sleet) will fall after midnight into Thursday. Spotty sleet this evening. 
• Jonesboro will likely go above freezing by mid-morning (10am-11am) and we only have rain beyond that.
• With that said, the icing prior to going above 32 may cause travel issues in Jonesboro. 
• NW and W of Jonesboro (Hardy, Salem, Batesville, maybe Walnut Ridge) may stay below freezing for a longer period and have major icing. 
• Southern MO may see snow and could get 2-4”. This includes West Plains.
• This might change by 10PM, but here are my thoughts at 4:00 PM
• Click image to enlarge.

Stay tuned!

Ryan

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Threat of Ice

It's Tuesday morning and we already have some Winter Storm Watches issued for Region 8 counties. As always, I like to post a list of bullet points to address most questions. Here are my thoughts about the ICE threat as of Tuesday morning at 8:30 am:

• The precipitation will move in Wednesday night and will last through Thursday.
• It should start as sleet, change to freezing rain and sleet, and then to rain on Thursday.
• Some places in the Ozarks may not switch to rain.
• Winter Storm Warnings and possibly Ice Storm Warnings are expected.
• Travel on Thursday morning will likely be impacted.
• We may have power outages.
• It will NOT be as bad as "The" Ice Storm of 2009.
• I'm not a superintendent, so I have no opinion on your school closing.

Okay, I got that out of the way, so let's look at two models, the GFS and RPM. Both show a very similar setup. Here is an animation of the RPM starting at 3AM on Thursday into the lunch hour on Thursday:

The pinks and purples show the sleet and freezing rain, the blue shows the snow, and green is rain. Notice, we stay in the "mix" for a good part of the storm. As I said, the GFS shows a similar setup. Here is the GFS and notice the freezing line. We will watch the freezing line CLOSELY on Thursday:


The red is sleet and the yellow is freezing rain. Notice, it changes us to mostly rain by dinner time on Thursday. The above animation is morning, lunch, to dinner.

We are not alone in our thinking, the HPC is indicating some decent chances of ICE accumulation. Here is their map that shows a 40% chance of 0.25" of ice or more across Region 8. This would be some significant icing!

Also from the HPC is this product that gets a little more specific on the probability of seeing significant icing. This gives you an idea that North-Central AR may get the brunt of the ice:

That's the latest information! We are still 36-48 hours away, but STAY TUNED to changes in this forecast! We will have updates an each newscast with the latest data.

Have a good day!

Ryan

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False Tornado Warning

I can't stand false alarms. Whether it is a fake tornado report, exaggerated severe weather report, faulty tornado siren, trigger-happy official on the tornado siren button, or a new one today... false tornado warning on a mobile phone. Not just a few mobile phones, but most newer smartphones using a specific mobile phone service provider in the state of Arkansas!

As I type this, nobody is wanting to take the blame for what happened. FEMA says it was not them, a guy at the Mobile Phone Company is blaming FEMA, NWS says it was not them, and I'll join in and say it was not our fault either.

During severe weather, I appreciate SOLID information. 30 seconds before I went on air, every Verizon smartphone in the studio and control room went off and said the above statement. There was no location given or specific information.

While I was trying to show everyone where it was raining and what we can expect over the next 7 days, I was wondering what in the world was happening. On one hand, I saw nothing on radar that would warrant a tornado warning. On the other hand, I was afraid that I was missing something and lives were at risk. It was a very uncomfortable feeling. Looking back, I'm glad it was nothing.

The storms are starting to move out, so let's all sleep well tonight.

-Ryan

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Looking Back At Super Tuesday Tornado, 5 Years Later

It's always sobering to look back at huge weather events. Some of the most violent and impacting weather events for me are the Ice Storm of 2009, the Marmaduke/Caruthersville tornado, Hurricane Ivan (when in AL), and the Super Tuesday Tornado outbreak.

I archived the severe weather coverage from that event and posted it on YouTube. Overall, I think the team did a great job pinpointing where the threat was located. Radar has changed a lot in 5 years and we have had some improvements in our equipment. In addition, we've learned a lot from this day. Here's a look back:



The damage from this storm was incredible. I always go out to the areas that are hit hard to see how the storm impacted them. I do this for a few reasons. First, I want to send my condolences to the families. I think there is a perception that meteorologists love tornadoes. I can't speak for everyone, but I do not love tornadoes. I appreciate the power and science behind tornadoes, but I root for people, and not tornadoes. Secondly, I want to learn something from each storm. I want to know if the damage is where it was expected. I want to know if the damage was as bad as what was expected. I want to know if people got the warning. If they were watching KAIT, did we broadcast the threat well enough for them to know when to take cover and did they know what to expect. I want to know all of these answers, so that next time, we can do better. We can always do better.

One of the couples I met after the Super Tuesday tornado lived in Mountain View. I do not know their names or if they rebuilt, but they were an awesome couple. They took cover and lived. If you know this couple, please give me an update on them. Here's a clip from the next day:



You can search around online and find more news coverage from that day. One of the clips I found came from Heather Flanigan. She was live at the Crispy Cone in Highland. Here's a video clip:




We will be LIVE there again, tonight. We have crews in Zion, Mountain View, and Highland and we will see how the they are doing today. Join us tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00.

Have a great day,
Ryan

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