Severe Threat, October 8th

I'm going to be watching the current conditions, visible satellite, and the special lunchtime wx balloon (sounding) in Little Rock today. You can check the statewide currents by clicking here. As of noon, we already had some juicy air, with 70°+ dewpoints overspreading the state. Clouds were breaking up and temperatures were into the upper 70s and low 80s! In addition, low level winds are increasing. Harrison already had wind gusts to 30 mph.

Below is a nerdy weather program we use called BUFKIT. This is the morning run of the NAM model. A few things to note for this evening... First, CAPE is over 2000. Anything over 1500 would concern me today. EHI is a combination index of shear and instability. Anything over 2-3 would concern me today and it is up to 7. Finally, the old classic "Lifted Index" is down to -6 or-7... anything under -3 or -4 is a red flag. IF, and I did say IF this happened... severe weather would be likely. We'll continue to watch everything unfold and I will update my Twitter feed on the right side of my blog...

Before I sign off, SPC has issued their new outlook. 10% chance of tornadoes has been noted in Region 8. That may not seem that high, but it is when referring to a tornado threat! The blue "hatched" area is a 10% or greater probability of tornadoes EF2 or greater from 25 miles of any given point. That's comforting, right?
I'll be updating Twitter through the day unless we have to go on air.

Stay tuned,
Ryan

PS-Sun just peaked out at my house!