We have a lot to talk about on this Tuesday morning. First, we still appear to have some snow coming in on Wednesday night. You have probably heard of the common 1:10 ratio on rain to snow when talking about accumulations, but the snow ratios will be higher with this storm.... Should be more like 15:1 for this event. I'm thinking 2" of snow in the Jonesboro area at this point. Higher amounts near Poplar Bluff and lower amounts near Wynne. Most of it will fall in the nighttime hours.
Second, we have some very cold air in place and colder air moving in behind the snowfall. Very cold air makes the forecast easier, because we know it will be all snow. No questions there. But, the cold air is going to be brutal this weekend. The GFS model in BUFKIT above (time-stamp from right to left) shows lows in the single digits. However, with snow on the ground, the temperatures are likely to be even colder. Possibly below 0°.
Lastly, we have another system coming in next Tuesday that needs to be watched closely. With warm air moving over the cold air in place, we may have an "overrunning" effect that produces freezing rain. I know that is the last thing that this area wants to hear about, BUT it will not be a "crippling" storm like last year... even if it plays out like the GFS is showing. It's still WAY too early to worry about that system right now. Just stay tuned.
Stay warm!
Ryan
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