Could We Dodge The Bullet?

This morning, we have already had a tornado in the northwestern part of the state. As I type this, we have had some reports of fatalities in Washington County. Right now, the air is unstable and has a lot of wind shear/forcing in that area. We often look at "EHI" to determine the tornado threat. It is an index that combines the instability and "spin" in the atmosphere. The above image shows the EHI higher in the western part of the state this morning. There is a good combination of CAPE and spin there right now.But what about later? First, look at the NAM model concerning this morning:

It does a good job showing where the tornado threat is this morning. Notice, the shaded areas... especially in green where the tornado threat is a little higher. These are the areas in AR that are being threatened right now. NOW, look at this afternoon as the storms move into East Arkansas:

Notice that the EHI drops. The main dynamics that they have in NW Arkansas shoots north and the most unstable air stays south. This leave us with plain ole storms and rain. The threat this afternoon should be more in LA and MS. For what it is worth, StormCAST has had Northern MS bullseyed for 2 days for this evening!

So, in summary.... Don't let the fatal storms in NW Arkansas scare us. I really think we will be fine. We'll have some watches and some warnings, we'll have some lightning and thunder, we'll have some rain.... I just don't think we will see violent tornadoes. We'll be watching it closely.

At this time, Sarah and Justin will be handling the operations in the Storm Center and I will be chasing. If it ramps up, I will be going into the studios I believe.

Stay tuned,
Ryan